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Market Energy Waves (source) He sees a 36 year cycle in stock markets that is peaking in mid-2013 and will cycle down for 2013 – 2016. the controlling energy wave is scheduled to flip back to negative on July 19 of this year.” Equity markets should drop 25 – 50%.

Armstrong Economics (source) His economic confidence model projects a peak in confidence in August 2013, a bottom in September 2014, and another peak in October 2015. He expects a world-wide crash and contraction in economies from 2015 – 2020.

The Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev (also written Kondratieff) was the first to bring these observations to international attention in his book The Major Economic Cycles (1925) alongside other works written in the same decade.

Two Dutch economists, Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff, had previously argued for the existence of 50 to 60 year cycles in 1913.

Similarly, bonds should peak in the summer of 2013 and fall thereafter for 20 years.

Kondratiev’s analysis described how international capitalism had gone through many such “great depressions” and as such were a normal part of the international mercantile credit system.

The long term business cycles that he identified through meticulous research are now called “Kondratieff” cycles or “K” waves.

If we accept the fact that most winters in K cycles last 20 years (as outlined in the chart above) this would indicate that we are about halfway through the Kondratieff winter that commenced in the year 2000.

Thus in all probability we will be moving from a “recession” to a “depression” phase in the cycle about the year 2013 and it should last until approximately 2017-2020.

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